Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction

Carlo Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz of Spain waves to fans as he walks off the court after beating Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime in their quarterfinal match at the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California Thursday, March 16.

  • Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev is a final of the hottest players on the ATP Tour in Indian Wells
  • Medvedev is aiming for his fourth straight tournament title; Alcaraz is looking for the No. 1 ranking
  • Read on as we break down the matchup and pick a winner

Carlos Alcaraz is 13-1 this season. Daniil Medvedev is 24-2, has won his last 19 games and his last three tournaments. The Indian Wells men’s singles final is a clash between two players in great form. Read on for an analysis of Alcaraz vs. Medvedev.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

player spread money line In total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -0.5 (-118) -124 O22.5 (-118)
[5] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +0.5 (-112) +102 U 22.5 (-112)

There is a lot of anticipation for this second edition of Alcaraz vs Sinner. Alcaraz is a slight favorite at -124 in the Indian Wells odds above. It has a spread of -0.5 and the match total is fixed at 22.5 games.

Alcaraz vs. Medvedev Odds from March 18th at FanDuel Spoersbook.

Alcaraz is looking for No. 1

With Novak Djokovic banned from the US Masters 1000 doubles for remaining unvaccinated, this is an opportunity for Alcaraz to reclaim the No. 1 ranking.

No matter how long that takes.

If he wins Indian Wells, he’s No. 1 again – at least until the end of Miami, where he’s defending a title and 1000 points and therefore has nothing to add.

Medvedev will be back in the top 5 at No. 5 no matter what.

While both will be motivated to win a Masters 1000, the fact that the No. 1 is at stake for Alcaraz only adds spice.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev head to head

19 (5 May 2003) Old 27 (February 11, 1996)
El Palmar, Spain Place of birth Moscow, Russia
6-0 Height 6-6
7 Career ATP singles title 18
No. 1 (09/12/2022) Career Best Ranking No. 1 (02/28/2022)
No. 2 Current ranking #6
$12,127,587 career prize money $27,415,119
13-1 Win/Loss Record 2022 24-2
2 ATP head to head wins 2

Alcaraz’s semi-final match against his young wild Jannik Sinner should be a box-office hit – especially after their classic late-night and early-morning quarter-final at last summer’s US Open.

The reality wasn’t quite so epic. In the end, Alcaraz narrowly won (in the first set), but straight sets, 7-6 (4), 6-3 against the 21-year-old Italian.

The two movements lasted almost two hours. But Alcaraz’s 72 percent first serve share helped him avoid many problems on his serve; Sinner only created two breakpoints.

The teenager went 13-to-18 at net while Sinner was only 9-to-21.

Those net skills could come in handy against Medvedev on Sunday.

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Medevev too strong for Tiafoe

In the first semifinal of the day, Frances Tiafoe Medvedev gave everything he had.

But even reaching the semi-finals at Indian Wells was a great achievement. He took advantage of the Russian getting tight (admittedly) to try and close it. But in general he just wasn’t able to create many opportunities on Medvedev’s serve, while Medvedev had eleven break point opportunities (and converted three) on Tiafoe’s serve.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Match History

Year competition surface score winner
2021 Wimbledon (R64) grass 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 Medvedev

A rivalry that has not yet begun

It’s easy to forget, as good as Alcaraz is, that he’s still in his first moments on the ATP Tour.

He has only played once against Medvedev so far. And that was almost two years ago when he started the 2021 season in 146th place. He advanced into the top 100 after winning a challenger in Portugal just before his second attempt in qualifying at the French Open. Which he survived without any problems and then went into the third round of the peloton.

He didn’t play again until Wimbledon – his debut there. Actually his first professional games on grass, period. He had previously played a Tuneup event and Junior Wimbledon in 2019.

And after winning his first round in five sets, Alcaraz didn’t have much love for Medvedev, who is definitely not a weed fan. But even then, the Russian only lost seven games.

This one should be very different.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev prediction

Such a tough call for this one. There is so little data on these two.

But it feels like it will take a supreme effort to beat the 19-year-old Spaniard this week.

He has the skills to exploit Medvedev’s deep court positioning. And he will need her.

Unless he’s getting tight for the stakes (at least it won’t be his first No. 1 rodeo), it looks like he’s the winner.

Alcaraz vs. Medvedev picks: Alcaraz in three sets (+290)

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Stephanie Myles

sports journalist

sports journalist

tennis Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction

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