With Republican Party approval plummeting and gas and commodity prices falling, Democrats suddenly have an opportunity to go on the offensive in this medium-term cycle by touting the success of the pandemic recovery — and confronting the draconian proposals of the alternative .
To do that, Democrats must put the innovation and courage of the American people at the center and show how we are moving from rapid recovery to sustained growth. In contrast, Republicans have become a cult devoted to Donald Trump, doubling their support for him despite the commission’s shocking revelations on Jan. 6.
Should they retake Congress, the Republican economic plan is to tax the lower and middle classes and offer no solution to dealing with inflation. The only thing they can claim credit for successfully taking down Roe V. Wade is one of the most unpopular actions ever taken by the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court’s decision to oust Roe is driving voter motivation for Democrats. 62% of voters say they are more motivated to vote in November after the decision. 62% say they are more motivated to vote Democrats, including 55% of independents. Only 27% say they are more likely to vote Republican in November.
According to veteran Democrat political strategist Simon Rosenberg, the latest poll data suggests the race has shifted 3-5 points to Democrats in recent weeks. Since the end of Roe, 11 polls of general congressional preference have been released. Seven of the 11 polls — more than half — show significant movement toward the Democrats, giving a significant lead in the general polls.
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In new comprehensive polls of battleground states, Future Majority found that the generic ballot for the congressional preference has shifted from 43 Democrats-45 Republicans in March to 44-42 now, a four-point swing. Another new poll of voters by Navigator finds a 24-point drop in GOP preference among independents and 10 points overall. This shift is very significant in a short period of time, and it confirms data that the national landscape is suddenly getting better for Democrats.
A review of recent Senate polling suggests that Democrats would retain the Senate and maybe even win a few seats if the election were held today. The New York Times gave an important review of the Senate showing that in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada, Democrats are leading their GOP peers.
With Republicans consistently leading the popular vote, along with Independents and Democrats, this is a new cycle of competition. Democrats must seize this moment now and argue to voters how left-leaning policies have strengthened our country’s economy.
In 2020, the economy was in freefall. The racial employment gap has been historically high. We have closed filled the gap today, adding 372,000 jobs to a strong June job market. The unemployment rate is currently in its fourth month at 3.6%, just above a 50-year low. Average hourly wages rose 5.1% in June compared to a year earlier. President Biden created 4.5 times more jobs in 17 months than the previous 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years.
Gas and commodity prices have finally started falling, a needed respite from rising inflation and a hopeful sign that it may be beginning to level off. Crude oil is down more than 8% and is trading below $100 a barrel for the first time since early May. US oil production is at an all-time high and the national average gas price fell for the third week after rebounding following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The average price for a gallon of gasoline is now about $4.70, down more than 33 cents from last month when prices were at their peak.
While raw material and gas prices continue to fall, we are increasing domestic economic output. Construction of new manufacturing facilities in the US rose 116% last year, dwarfing the 10% growth for all construction projects combined. Huge chip factories are being built in Phoenix: Intel is building two outside the city. Aluminum and steel mills are being built all over the south. This new semiconductor and steel production will help boost domestic economic productivity. Perhaps the most obvious sign that things are improving: In July this year, the baby food factory that has been at the heart of the recent shortages reopened this month. Finally, our global supply chain is improving; The import cost of $20,000 for containers is now down to $10,000 and shipping times are down 35%. We may not have returned to pre-pandemic times, but things are moving in the right direction.
Democrats have contributed to a strong recovery and made important investments in our economy and the American people. They have effectively guided Americans through difficult challenges – COVID, Ukraine and the ups and downs of the economy.
Our country is better today than it was in 2020 thanks to the resilience of the American people. Democrats must highlight and address the hard work and accomplishments they are responsible for to win. They need to show the contrast to the toxicity of the GOP’s divisive culture war rhetoric. Voters need to be informed and reminded of how toxic and out of control the Republican Party has become.
https://www.salon.com/2022/07/15/democrats-time-to-pounce-suddenly-find-themselves-vulnerable-ahead-of-midterms/ Democrats’ time to pounce: Republicans suddenly find themselves vulnerable ahead of midterms