Florida State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread and Tips – January 11th

The Florida State Seminoles (5-11) will travel to Winston-Salem on Wednesday night to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-5). Florida State defeated Georgia Tech 75-64 last Saturday. The final score didn’t show how much the Seminoles controlled the game, however, as they led by as much as 20 points late in the second half.

Leading scorer and former ACC 6MOY Matthew Cleveland lost a double-double with 21 points and 12 rebounds, while UCF transfer Darin Green Jr. and former Houston standout Caleb Mills finished on 12 of 26 from the floor with a combined 32 points . The FSU drilled ten three-pointers and shot 49% of the field overall.


Florida State vs. Wake Forest

betting odds

team Spread In total money line
Florida State Seminoles +7.5 or150 +275
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -7.5 u150 -330

Odds are provided courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook


Wake Forest bounced back from a narrow loss to UNC with an 80-72 win over Louisville last Saturday. Four Demon Deacons ended up in double figures, led by Damai Monsanto’s 21 points on five threes and 8-of-10 shots.

Wake was never behind in that game, even leading by as much as 22 points. They look like a real tournament team this season with victories over Virginia Tech, Duke and Wisconsin.


Shot Quality Tale of the Tape

Below we will highlight the essentials shot quality Data for this matchup including adjusted offensive and defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses and frequency. SQppp are a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus SQppp = total SQpoints/total number of possessions.

The Florida State Seminoles own a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ eligible for 84th in the nation this season. Wake has the 79th best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. FSU scores good to average in all key stats but in the fringe and three rate metrics with 67.7% posting (348th in the country). Conversely, the Demon Deacons are 182nd on the defensive edge and three rates.

The Seminoles possess high-pitched midrange numbers, three-pointer throwing outside of dribbling, and half-court shots. They’re in the top 10 at three-pointer dribble and solid at halffield, but have a .70 SQ PPP in midfield (343rd in the country). Conversely, the Demon Deacons are 82nd on defensive halfcourt and average in off-the-dribble three-pointers and midrange.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, the 62nd best brand in the country. Florida State posted a 1.02 AdjDEF SQ 207th in the country this season. The Demon Deacons are in the top 80 on all key metrics except for 124th in free throw percentage. The Seminoles are ranked 180th or worse on all key stats.

Wake Forest ranks in the top half of the country for the frequency of the following shot types: catch and shoot three-pointers, finishing on the edge, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and transition. However, Florida State is in the bottom 175 when it comes to defending all of these shot types while struggling primarily with defending the perimeter (350th in off-the-dribble three-pointer SQ PPP ).


Florida State Seminoles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacon’s Prediction

I love this wake team as much as any, but Florida State has been playing some great ball lately. Aside from being crushed at Duke, they hung closely with Virginia and Purdue while beating Louisville and Georgia Tech. They started the season with an extremely poor November but have responded with mostly quality games over the last month and a half.

Fortunately, Wake Forest is giving away too many points to an FSU team that’s headed in the right direction with quality talent and coaching.

Prediction: Wake Forest +7.5 (-110)

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Edited by Sankalp Srivastava

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