Kansas vs. Arkansas Predictions, Odds and Lines

Jalen Wilson of Kansas celebrates a basket

Jalen Wilson of Kansas celebrates his goal during the first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament between Kansas and Howard on Thursday March 16, 2023 at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. 0316 Kansas Howard 018 Arw

  • A spot in the Sweet 16 is at stake when No. 1 Kansas takes on No. 8 Arkansas in round two on Saturday, March 18
  • Kansas defeated Howard 96-68 in the first round while Arkansas defeated Illinois
  • Check out the Arkansas vs Kansas odds below, as well as our best bet and prediction for this competition

Don’t be fooled by the seedings when No. 8 Arkansas ((21-13, 17-16-1 ATS) vs. No. 1 Kansas (28-7, 17-18 ATS) on Saturday, March 18 in Wells enters Fargo Arena: These two teams are a lot closer than you might think at the competitive level.

Tippoff for this second round game in the west region is at 5:15 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS. After a 20-point loss to Texas in the Big 12 tournament, Kansas bounced back strongly, destroying Howard by 28 points in their NCAA tournament opener.

Arkansas vs Kansas Odds

team spread money line In total
Arkansas Razorback +3.5 (-110) +133 O 143.5 (-110)
Kansas Jayhawks -3.5 (-110) -184 U 143.5 (-110)

Surprised by the narrow 3.5 point spread in favor of the Jayhawks? Do not be. According to KenPom, Arkansas ranks 19th in the nation in adjusted efficiency, while the Jayhawks are 9th, the lowest overall finish of any No. 1 seed in that tournament.

The over/under sum is 143.5 points. Although Kansas scored 96 points alone in their first-round win and easily surpassed the over, they had fallen below the betting line in college basketball odds in their six previous contests.

March 18 odds at Caesars. Claim Caesars Sportsbook promo code or choose one of the March Madness betting apps.

Arkansas two wins away from third straight Elite Eight

After back-to-back Elite Eight appearances, it’s going to be a tough road back to that spot in their quadrant of the March Madness bracket this time around, as that journey must now pass through the West region’s top seed.

Big things were expected of Eric Musselman’s team this season. The Razorbacks finished 10th in the preseason AP Top 25 but really struggled in league play, finishing with an 8-10 record.

The Razorbacks’ defense put their conference game behind and played a big part in their 73-63 first-round win over Illinois. In the first half, Arkansas forced nine turnovers from Illinois for 13 points and held their opponent on just 8 of 29 shots (27.6%) to build a 10-point lead at the break.

They withstood a late wave of Fighting Illini, helped in large part by clutch free-throw shots, and went 15-17 from the charity streak in the 2nd half, led by Ricky Council IV, who scored an 18-point game of which were 11 high came out of line.

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Kansas marches without Bill Self

A big question Kansas faces ahead of Saturday’s contest will be whether or not they will have Bill Self back on the sidelines. The Jayhawks head coach was released from hospital on Sunday after a five-day stay after receiving a stent to his heart that forced him to miss last week’s Big 12 tournament and the Jayhawks tournament opener.

While they had no problem without their court boss in an easy opening win over Howard, the Razorbacks present a different kind of challenge. Just four points off the century mark, they’ll have a much harder time against an Arkansas squad that has the Has limited opponents to 70 points or less to pick up buckets in 11 of their last 16 games.

On the other hand, the dedication to D makes this Jayhawks roster a contender for NCAA tournament-winning odds. According to KenPom, they’re seventh overall in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, so this will likely be a defense-centric matchup.

Arkansas vs. Kansas head-to-head stats

74.8 (110th) points/game 75.6 (91st)
67.2 (97th) Points Allowed/Game 68.2 (128th)
47.5 (33rd) FG% 46.4 (73rd)
32.1 (301st) 3PT% 34.8 (151st)

Arkansas vs Kansas Selection and Prediction

Kansas had the sixth-lowest Final Four odds before the tournament tipped at +350, while the Razorbacks had +1400 odds to make it into Finals weekend.

Our feeling is that sports betting hit the point distribution squarely, but the bet we love at Arkansas vs Kansas odds is under. Both teams rely on defense to win and the trends for both sides suggest they fall below the total set on the bet line.

Arkansas has hit the under in 10 of their last 14 games after an ATS win, while the under for Kansas is 6-0 after a straight win. A combination that goes beyond 143.5 points will be an extreme departure from the norm for either team, so undercut what should be a stubborn affair.

Tip: Under 143.5 (-110)

March Madness Round 2 Predictions (March 18):

March Madness Round 1 Predictions (March 17):

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Georg Nassios

sports journalist

sports journalist


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