Man City vs RB Leipzig Odds & Prediction

Kevin De Bruyne

Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne applauds fans at the end of the Champions League first leg quarter-final match between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, Tuesday, April 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Dave Thompson)

  • Man City host RB Leipzig in the Champions League Round of 16 second leg on Tuesday March 14 at 4pm ET
  • Those two sides remain in limbo thanks to a 70th-minute first-leg header from Josko Gvardiol
  • Get our Man City v RB Leipzig prediction and odds below

The Champions League round of 16 concludes this week, with Man City v RB Leipzig highlighting Tuesday’s table. Of all four games this week, this is the only one that’s still stuck and there’s so much left to play. Man City are the big favorites on Tuesday but are they the best bet in our Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction?

In the first leg, Man City controlled possession and chances for most of the game, with a clean finish from Riyad Mahrez giving them the advantage at half-time. However, a sloppy defense from a set piece gave RB Leipzig the goal they dreamed of at home.

Now the two sides travel to Manchester for an exciting second leg. Man City have racked up four straight wins since the draw, beating their opponents by an impressive 10-1. On the other hand, RB Leipzig have won two games in the Bundesliga and lost one against Borussia Dortmund. Marco Rose also has a worrying injury list, with Christopher Nkunku and Xaver Schlager being the biggest names likely to be absent.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig opportunities

Match Moneyline Odds
man city -260
RB Leipzig +700
Pull +425

Overall, Man City are the overwhelming favorites with moneyline odds of -260, giving an implied win probability of 72.2%. This is not surprising as they are the favorites to win the cup (+200) in the Champions League odds this year. RB Leipzig, in turn, is the massive underdog with a +700 moneyline odds between Man City and RB Leipzig. A spread play of +1.5 (-130) in favor of Die Rotten Bullen is much more realistic considering that 50% of Man City’s last ten games have fallen within this range.

Champions League Odds as of March 12th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig over under

Additionally, like most Man City games, the overall scoring chances are skewed towards the over. In fact, betting on goal tally over 2.5 only gives odds of -165, even though those two fell below the total a couple of weeks ago. Personally, I’ll stay away from any total goals game considering we’ve seen everything from a 1-1 to a 6-3 between these teams in the last couple of years.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig Props – Stay down in the Corner Market

Another game to watch out for in this match in Man City vs RB Leipzig odds is under 9.5 corners with odds of -125. Neither side produces many corners as we saw the total in the first leg only went up to six. Man City have averaged 8.78 corner kicks in the Premier League this year while earning just 6.33 of them. In addition, RB Leipzig have similar numbers, winning just 5.04 corners per game. This game could be very nervy for the first thirty minutes or so which makes this game a no-brainer.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig Expected Lineups and Injuries

Estimated line-up of Man City: Ederson, Ake, Dias, Akanji, Walker, Rodri, Silva, De Bruyne, Grealish, Haaland, Foden

Serious injuries & absences: none

Expected line-up of RB Leipzig: Blaswich, Halstenberg, Gvardiol, Orban, Henrichs, Laimer Haidara, Forsberg, Szoboszlai, Werner, Silva

Severe injury & absences: Nkunku, Gulacsi, Diallo, Schlager

March Madness odds for all first round games – spreads, totals, moneylines for round of 64

Man City is hard to stop at the Etihad Stadium

For what it’s worth, Man City are a force at the Etihad Stadium, especially in the European game. Pep Guardiola’s side have somehow managed to go 23 games unbeaten in the Champions League when playing at their home stadium. Their league form at home (11-1-1) also suggests that they simply feel more comfortable playing in front of their own ranks.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig statistics

2.14 goals per game 2.00
2.14 Expected goals per game 1.60
0.43 Goals allowed per game 1.43
0.59 Expected goals per game allowed 1.19
65.7% ownership % 51.8%
57.1% Near zero % 28.6%
17.3 shots per game 12.0
WWWWD Current Forms Guide (All Comps) WLWDW

Statistics in the table from the Champions League game 2022/23.

As much as I would like to see an underdog in the Champions League, I would expect chalk in our prediction to see Man City win against RB Leipzig. They have not been knocked out in the last 16 since capitulating to Monaco in 2016/17, which is a fairy tale in itself. Now they are a well-oiled machine that has only picked up steam since that frustrating Gvardiol goal.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig forecast

All in all, I still expect Leipzig to stay close, which is why I’ll be riding on their +1.5 spread for my Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction. On top of that, throw a sprinkle at less than 9.5 total corners as I really prefer that too. Anything else seems risky to me on Tuesday night just because of the nature of a tied KO game.

Manchester City versus RB Leipzig Tips: RB Leipzig +1.5, under 9.5 corners in total

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Josh Ricker

sports journalist

sports journalist

football Man City vs RB Leipzig Odds & Prediction

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