Maria Sakkari vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction

Maria Sakkari reacts to a tough points win over Petra Kvitova during the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California March 15, 2023. BNP Wed 12

• Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka will meet for the eighth time in Friday’s Indian Wells semifinals
• Sakkari has won the last two editions but Sabalenka is the favorite in the odds between Sakkari and Sabalenka
• Read on as we break down our Sakkari vs Sabalenka prediction and see if Sakkari can pull off the surprise

Will Maria Sakkari even out the rivalry between Sakkari and Sabalenka at 4-4? Or will Aryna Sabalenka move forward and reach the Indian Wells final in the process?

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Odds

With odds of -275, Sabalenka is the favorite in Friday’s semifinal match between Sakkari and Sabalenka in Indian Wells (not before 6 p.m. EDT). Sakkari is the underdog at +220 odds.

Odds of March 16th at FanDuel.

Sakkari and Sabalenka haven’t met that much in their careers, although they play almost the same events every year and both have been in the top 10 for a while.

On average it happened about once a season. But after Sabalenka has won four times in a row – three of them in three different Middle Eastern nations – Sakkari has won the last two duels – at the WTA Finals in 2021 and again in 2022.

Despite this, Sabalenka is now the Australian Open champion and the favourite.

Sakkari escapes against Kvitova

For all the world, it seemed like Petra Kvitova would reach the Indian Wells semifinals for the first time in her long career.

She’s been a quarterfinalist twice, but mostly a third-rounder as the conditions don’t really suit her.

But once it seemed a done deal, it wasn’t. And Sakkari ran away in a 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 win that sees them through to the semifinals for the second straight season. Last year she also made it to the final.

Sakkari had a bumpy road – four top-flight opponents, four three-pointers – and in three of those she had to come back from a set.

Getting a set against Sabalenka could prove to be the toughest path of all.

Sakkari vs. Sabalenka head-to-head

Sabalenka’s path was clearer and less physically demanding.

First a player on a protected leaderboard (Rodina) and then a qualifier (Lesia Tsurenko, who didn’t go on the date at all). She had a tough threesome against the worthy Barbora Krejickova in the round of 16.

And then she dismissed young American Coco Gauff as if she were a simple player and not number 6 in the world. Sabalenka handed out a bagel in the 6-4, 6-0 win.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Match History

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Prediction

Sabalenka is a pretty heavy favorite in the odds between Sakkari and Sabalenka, perhaps partly due to her three victories in desert-like conditions in the Middle East (and also because she’s the higher-ranked player and the Grand Slam champion).

Sakkari had to throw the kitchen sink at her to earn that victory at the 2021 WTA Finals.

Last year at the same event, Sabalenka had miserable problems with the serve shot. With that in mind, even reaching the WTA Finals in Texas was a win in itself. So this loss came as no great surprise.

It feels like Sabalenka is a different player in 2023; maybe the longed-for first major in your trouser pocket has freed you from many insecurities.

As quick as Sakkari is, Sabalenka does just about everything else better. She has the kind of aggressive power that can survive even the dismal, slow-speed Indian Wells conditions.

And obviously she serves a lot better – both on the first serve and on the second serve.

However, it’s probably a better overall surface for Sakkari – as her run to the finals a year ago proved.

Sakkari vs. Sabalenka predictions: 1st set will have the most games (+105); Sabalenka wins first set and match (-158)

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