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The lines come from Sports Betting Review and the home teams are in CAPs.
NEW ORLEANS -1 via Jacksonville
Good defense from the Saints, but what a terrible fall from Foster Moreau in the clutch.
TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Atlanta
As much as we want the Falcons to be better and more exciting with Bijan Robinson at the helm, this is a team that is ranked 26thTh in DVOA compared to the Bucs in 15Th. Desmond Ridder is simply not suited to be a starting quarterback against a potential contender.
CHICAGO +3 over Las Vegas
Both teams have major deficiencies and are likely relying on backup QBs. But do you really want to support Aiden O’Connell/Brian Hoyer as away favorites?
Cleveland -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s probably PJ Walker vs. Gardner Minshew, but the real advantage lies in the Browns’ defense, which is running at a historic pace. The Colts need Jonathan Taylor to get up to speed and that won’t happen this week.
Detroit +3 over BALTIMORE
After years of suffering, the Lions have become true Super Bowl contenders and have a 5-1 record directly in front of and against the spread. Jared Goff has won seven of his last eight road starts and is second only to San Francisco in DVOA. The Ravens aren’t far behind, but I think Aidan Hutchinson should give Lamar Jackson a hard time in this game.
Buffalo -8.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The only time the Pats beat the Bills since 2019, there were blustery winds and Mac Jones threw three passes. Buffalo has dominated this rivalry, with only one of its last six wins during that span coming by fewer than 12 points.
Washington -2.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants offensive line uses players who literally get off the couch and they expect them to be able to slow down the Commanders, who have one of the better pass rushing units in the league? I do not believe that.
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SEATTLE -7.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals were a beautiful story while it lasted, but the desert rose no longer blooms. As competitive as they are, the results just aren’t close anymore and Seattle will be looking to bounce back from their narrow loss to Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh +3 over LA RAMS
The Steelers have a fantastic record of 12-4 after a bye under Mike Tomlin. The Rams are dealing with some injuries at running back that will likely slow their overall offense.
LA Chargers +5.5 over KANSAS CITY
The last four meetings between these teams have seen games decided by six points or fewer, and each of the Chargers games this season has been a one-score contest. We get the points.
Green Bay -1 over DENVER
We have two teams that are having some problems and both are taking an extra break. While there’s a lot of money coming in for the Broncos, it’s hard to understand why when they’re pretty open about the possibility of a blowup.
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Miami +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
There’s just something not right about the Eagles this season, and it showed in their loss to the Jets last week. The Dolphins’ offense is extremely explosive and Philly’s secondary has been a problem this season.
San Francisco -6.5 over MINNESOTA
It looks like the 49ers have avoided several injuries despite their loss last week. Their offense should be fine and bounce back significantly against the Vikings.
Last week: 9-6
This season: 45-45-3
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