NOAA Adjusts Hurricane Forecast Downward for 2022 Season

Storm-weary residents of coastal Louisiana were able to breathe a little easier after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its mid-season tropical forecast yesterday. NOAA, the people who keep track of the weather and tropics for us, has revised down its forecast for the 2022 hurricane season by one named storm.

NOAA Hurricane Graphic

NOAA Facebook

While that’s good news, it’s not great news as the agency still forecasts the 2022 hurricane season to be above average. New data from NOAA suggests the season will produce 14 to 20 named storms. Of those named storms, forecasters believe six to ten could strengthen into hurricanes.

The agency also indicated in its report released yesterday that of the six to ten expected hurricanes, three to five will achieve major hurricane status. A major hurricane is a storm that is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Hurricane seen from space

Photo courtesy of nasa-5477L9Z5eqI-unsplash

And remember, these predictions don’t apply particularly to “landfall” hurricanes. Many of the storms will form and stay well offshore, which is great for anyone interested in the coast.

So far, the 2022 hurricane season has been quiet compared to recent years. We’ve only seen three named storm systems so far. And as of this report, the tropics are calm and expected to remain calm for the next five days.

But forecasters warn us not to be complacent about the lack of storm activity. Statistics show that 90% of all tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin occurs between August and October, and tropic conditions still suggest all the ingredients for storm formation are in place.

A restraining factor in the development of tropical waves, which typically roll off the coast of Africa at this time of year, has been an influx of Saharan dust. This dust tends to “dry” the atmosphere, and so far the “dust” has reached all the way across the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico.

But at least for this weekend we can breathe a sigh of relief, although it’s still a good idea to get a game plan in case a storm forms before the season ends on November 30th.

Amazing images of the aftermath of Hurricane Ida

Hurricane Ida was one of the strongest and longest-lasting major hurricanes to strike the Louisiana coast in recorded history. Due to the storm surge, Ida essentially provided itself with warm, humid air and maintained its status as a major hurricane for almost half a day. This allowed the storm to cause catastrophic damage over a longer distance and much further inland than other storms. Here are just a few of the many images that show just how powerful the storm was. NOAA Adjusts Hurricane Forecast Downward for 2022 Season

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