Oscars 2023: Who wins should win and who should have looked

TToward the end of awards season, we usually know which films and performances will triumph on Oscar night. But this year has been a bit more unpredictable than usual. The usual precursors – the Baftas, the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards – have been unusually diverse when it comes to winners, with voters opting to spread the wealth rather than to focus on the same collection of faces each time. It means this weekend’s Oscars could actually be exciting. It also means it’s difficult to predict what will happen during the night.

This is partly due to an unusually strong selection of nominees this year, from populist hits like avatar And elvis to critical favorites such as tar And The Banshees by Inisherin. Then there are the films, both of which were real phenomena that made big bucks And enthusiastic, like the presumed Best Picture winner Everything everywhere at once.

But is a Everything everywhere sweep a deal as sealed as it may seem? And if we’re being completely honest, should it be? Ahead of the Oscars this Sunday, March 12th, we took a look at the big categories and decided who will win, who should win and who really should have checked in.

best picture

nothing new in the West

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees by Inisherin

elvis

Everything everywhere at once

The Fabelmans

tar

Top Gun: Maverick

triangle of sadness

women talk

Will win Everything everywhere at once

Should win Top Gun: Maverick

Should take a look After sun

This is, on the whole, a strong Best Picture cast with (almost) every title making sense as a winner and unlikely to erupt in a post-ceremony argument. It Is frustratingly dominated by male directors, especially when both are the case After sun And The Woman King (directed by Charlotte Wells and Gina Prince-Bythewood respectively) received some of the best reviews of the year and felt worthy of inclusion.

Best Director

daniels, Everything everywhere at once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees by Inisherin

todd field, tar

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Ruben Ostlund, triangle of sadness

Will win Daniels

Should win Todd Field

Should take a look Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

It feels like this is a battle between creators of fantastical universes, from the Daniels with their multiverse adaptations Everything everywhere to Todd Field, whose sociopathic musical genius Lydia Tár is practically a universe unto itself. But where is Gina Prince-Bythewood? Your Viola Davis action vehicle The Woman King was as tense and moving as it was technically stunning, and it more than deserves a spot.

Best actor

Austin Butler, elvis

colin farrell, The Banshees by Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The whale

Paul Meskal, After sun

bill nighty, Life

Will win Austin Butler

Should win Colin Farell

Should take a look Gabriel Labelle, The Fabelmans

Oscars love the celebrity look, so it feels like this category was sewn by Austin Butler. It would be a disappointing win, however, especially when this line-up is so stacked with veteran (better) actors who have long deserved praise and (better) offspring like Paul Mescal. Frustratingly absent here is Gabriel LaBelle, whose spiky, charismatic work as a young Steven Spielberg has been almost entirely overlooked throughout awards season — what happened there?

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, tar

Ana de Armas, Blond

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything everywhere at once

Will win Michelle Yeoh

Should win Cate Blanchett

Should take a look taylor russell, bones and all

This is the highlight of the evening, with both Yeoh and Blanchett having an equal chance to take home the prize. Only a monster would complain about a Yeoh win, but my heart goes out to Blanchett – her work tar is not only the best performance of the year, but one of the best film performances in eons. From the snubs here, looking at Danielle Deadwyler’s heartbreaking work Until is an embarrassing misstep, but I would also have liked to see Taylor Russell win awards this year for her rich and sensitive performance in Luca Guadagnino’s cannibal love story bones and all. She more than deserves to be in the same Breakout Film Performance rant as Butler, Mescal, and Stephanie Hsu.

Best supporting actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees by Inisherin

brian tyree henry, dam

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

barry keoghan, The Banshees by Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything everywhere at once

Will win Ke Huy Quan

Should win Barry Keoghan

Should take a look Tim Roth, resurrection

Ke Huy Quan has long been considered an attacker here, much as Barry Keoghan should have lost that accolade. Either way, this is an impressive lineup. In terms of contentious snubs, it would have been nice to see some love for Tim Roth in the brilliant Rebecca Hall thriller resurrection (She would have been a great nominee for best actress too, honestly). A shockingly quiet sex offender turned vaguely supernatural stalker, Roth hasn’t been this good in years.

The best supporting actress

Angela Basset, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees by Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything everywhere at once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything everywhere at once

Will win Jamie Lee Curtis

Should win Kerry Condon

Should take a look Nina Hoess, tar

This category carries the touch of “Monday Morning Outrage” with a win for Jamie Lee Curtis growing more likely by the day. It would be confusing for two reasons. First, she’s not particularly good in the film. Second, Stephanie Hsu is right there! So is Angela Bassett, too, when voters Really wanted to honor a beloved industry veteran who doesn’t currently have an Oscar on his mantelpiece. Fingers crossed Condon will take it though. Missing here are some of the year’s best scene-stealers, from Nina Hoss’ hurt work as Lydia Tár’s poor, doomed wife to Judith Ivey’s soulful and compassionate performance as the Menonite grandmother in women talk.