Penn St vs. Purdue Odds & Predictions for Big Ten Title Game
March 11, 2023; Chicago, IL, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) is defended by Ohio State Buckeyes guard Isaac Likekele (13) in the first half at the United center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
- The Purdue Boilermakers are 6-point favorites against Penn State in Sunday’s Big Ten tournament finals
- The Nittany Lions lost both regular season meetings to Purdue this year
- Below you can find the latest Penn State vs Purdue odds, plus analysis and best bets
Many representatives of the Big Ten are expected during March Madness.
On Sunday, the Penn State Nittany Lions (22-10, 10-10 Big Ten) — none of the eight schools in the conference of SBD’s planned March Madness group — can secure their spot with a win in the Big Ten tournament finals .
The 10th seed will have their hands full with Purdue with top seeds. The Boilermakers (28-5, 155 Big Ten), currently ranked fifth in the nation, are expected to land a 2-seed in the Big Dance.
It departs Sunday (March 12) at 3:30pm ET from the United Center in Chicago, IL. You can watch the game live on CBS.
Penn State vs Purdue Odds
|team||spread||money line||In total|
|+6 (-110)||+215||Ex 135.5 (-110)|
|-6 (-110)||-255||Un 135.5 (-110)|
The Boilermakers are a 6-point favorite and -255 on the moneyline, giving them an implied win percentage of 71.83%. The matchup also has a total of 135.5.
Penn State has struggled with Purdue this season, losing both regular-season matchups: a 76-63 loss on Jan. 8 and an 80-60 loss on Feb. 1.
No team in Big Ten tournament history has won anything seeded lower than eighth place.
Odds as of March 12th at DraftKings.
Penn State vs Purdue betting analysis
There’s no saying Penn State isn’t battle-hardened for Sunday. The Nittany Lions have won three games of this tournament en route to the Finals, winning each game by four points or fewer.
They beat 19th-place Indiana 77-73 in a thrilling semifinal.
Jalen Pickett with a great game to lead Penn State to the Big Ten tournament finals.
🔥 28 points
— SLAM University (@slam_university) March 11, 2023
Jalen Pickett was the top scorer for PSU, dropping 28 points with eight rebounds and four assists. Seth Lundy was the only other Lion to be in double figures, finishing with 16 points and six boards.
The Nittany Lions worked overtime to turn Northwestern upside down, upsetting 2nd place quarterfinalists 67-65. They opened the tournament with a narrow 79-76 win over Illinois.
PSU boasts one of the best offenses in the NCAA, ranking 16th on KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. They rank 11th with an effective field goal shooting percentage of 55.9% and 11th in 3-point shooting with 38.9% drilling from distance on the 5th most attempts in college basketball.
Penn State vs. Purdue head-to-head
|72.4||points per game||73.1|
|68.3||counterpoints per game||62.6|
|49.5%||Effective FG% of the opponent||47.0%|
All was not smooth for the Boilermakers, who played tight in their Big Ten tournament opener and defeated Rutgers 70-65. An expected showdown with Michigan State never materialized as Ohio State angered them.
Purdue defeated the 13th-seeded Buckeyes 80-66 in Saturday’s semifinals.
Big man Zach Edey, the overwhelming favorite in the Wooden Award odds for international of the year, dominated the Buckeyes with 32 points and 14 rebounds. Braden Smith was an all-around star with 15 points, five rebounds and five assists, not missing a shot or free throw in the game.
Zach Edey led Purdue to the finals of the Big Ten tournament today with a big game:
🔥 32 points
🔥 14 REB
🔥 3 AST
🔥 1 STL@zach_edey @BoilerBall pic.twitter.com/YE8AEiW4Jg
— SLAM University (@slam_university) March 11, 2023
The Boilermakers are just as strong offensively as the Nittany Lions, who rank fifth in KenPom for offensive efficiency, despite posing little threat from three-point range and shooting just 32.7% from long range, which ranks 266th lies.
Their defense is just as lethal, allowing just 62.5 points per game (21st) and keeping teams at 31.1% from three-point range (40th) – a key strength against strength on Sunday.
Edey was the difference in this neck-and-neck race, averaging 24 points and 13 rebounds in Purdue’s two wins.
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Penn State vs Purdue Prediction
Purdue actually outplayed Penn State in both wins from the three-point line. They were 8-to-18 in the first game while PSU was 8-to-22. In the second win, Purdue was +9 from beyond the arc in 14-to-31 shooting (45.2%).
If you’re thinking upset, this could be the matchup. It’s hard enough to win against a team three times in a row, especially since Purdue is stuck in March Madness regardless of the outcome.
The Nittany Lions are currently on a great streak after winning five straight and eight of nine. They’re 4-1 against the spread in their last five. Purdue come into the finals after winning four of their last five, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against a team with a track record.
It’s hard not to look at the whole. Although these teams rank in the 300s on KenPom’s adjusted pace metric, they have fallen short of that total in their previous two matchups.
In Purdue’s last six games against winning teams, the over is 6-0, while PSU has seen a 4-0 overgo on the neutral side in their last four games.
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