Pitt vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread & Predictions for the Top Four (March 14)

Tolu Smith of the Mississippi State Bulldogs walks with guard Dashown Davis

March 9, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) and guard Dashown Davis (10) celebrate beating the Florida Gators during overtime at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

  • Mississippi State is a 1.5-point favorite over Pitt in an NCAA Tournament First Four game Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio
  • Both teams lost by 20+ points in their conference tournaments
  • A look at Pitt v Mississippi State odds and predictions is below

Pittsburgh and Mississippi State meet in an NCAA Tournament First Four game Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. ET at the University of Dayton in Dayton Ohio for the No. 11 spot in the Midwest region.

Pitt (22-11, 22-10-1 ATS) has lost three of his last four games, including losing to then-#21 Duke 96-69 in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. Mississippi State (21-12, 16-17) lost to then-#4 Alabama 72-49 in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament for the Bulldogs’ second loss in their last three games.

This is Pitt’s first appearance in the NCAAs since 2016. Mississippi State is in the big dance for the first time since 2019.

TruTV will broadcast the game.

Pitt vs Mississippi State Odds

team money line spread In total
Pitt +105 -1.5 (-110) Over 133 (-110)
State of Mississippi -125 +1.5 (-110) Below -133 (-110)

Mississippi State is favored by 1.5 points and is a -125 pick on the moneyline in college basketball odds, giving it an implied winning percentage of 55.56%. The winner of this game plays Friday in Greensboro, NC in the March Madness bracket to play 6th seeded Iowa State.

March 13 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Pitt wants to recover

Pitt fell 12-0 down to Duke, allowing the Blue Devils to score at will in the ACC district.

Duke shot 62.1% (36 of 58) overall and 11 of 26 (42.3%) with three-pointers as it had season highs in points and field goal percentage. The Blue Devils’ 27 assists set an ACC tournament record.

Pitt got more points from his bench (41) than regular players (28). Senior guard Nike Sibande led the Panthers with 17 points and seven rebounds, and freshman forward Guillermo Diaz Graham added 14 points and eight boards as both excelled in reserve roles.

Senior guard Jamarius Burton finished the tournament with 13 points and three assists. At 15.6 points per game, Burton is tied at the top of the table with junior forward Blake Hinson.

Burton is also dragging down 4.8 points and dishing out 4.4 assists per game. Hinson, a transfer from Ole Miss, has a 6.2 rebound average.

Hinson managed just five points against Duke on 2-of-6 shooting.

Two other transfers – senior guards Nelly Cummings (11.0, Colgate) and Greg Elliott (10.4, Marquette) – also score in double digits. Cummings is fourth in the ACC with 4.8 assists per game.

Pitt shoots 76.1% from the foul line, rank 35th in the nation.

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The state of Mississippi also needs to recover

The state of Mississippi was pulled out of SEC quarters by Alabama in a manner similar to Pitt’s. The Bulldogs fell 7-0 and never recovered.

The slow-moving Mississippi State offensive was ended by the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs made just 18 of their 58 field goal attempts for 31.0% and shot a paltry 7.7% (1 of 13) from long range.

Mississippi State has been unable to dominate that end of the floor all season. It is ranked 301stSt in field goal percentage (42.3), 321St in scoring (65.9), 346th in free throw shooting (64.7%) and 363rdapprox in the three-point percentage (26.6%).

Senior forward Tolu Smith was a bright spot against Alabama with 17 points and 11 rebounds. It was his third consecutive double-double and 12th the season.

Senior guard Dashown Davis added 13 points.

Smith averages 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and his field percentage of 57.6 is above the SEC. He is second in the Conference of Directors.

Smith is the only Mississippi state player to score in double digits. Junior guard Shakeel Moore is second with 9.6 points per game.

A strong defense makes up for Mississippi’s sluggish offense. In Division I, the Bulldogs rank ninth in percentage of field goals allowed (39.4), 11th abandoned in points (61.0) and 35th in three-point defense (30.8%).

Pitt vs Mississippi State Prediction

The schools last met at the NIT in 2001, with Mississippi State achieving a 66-61 away win.

Games in the first round of the NCAA tournament are rarely masterpieces as most teams have nervousness. Look to the defense of the Mississippi State to make the difference.

Selection: State of Mississippi -1.5 (-110)

Season record: 32-28 (+1.3 units) ATS, 4-10 (-5.5 units) ML

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John Perrotto

sports journalist

sports journalist


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