The timing couldn’t be better for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, as poll after poll shows them holding a commanding lead heading into their party conference. For Justin Trudeau, the same polls show that many Canadians would be fine if he left office and stayed in Asia, where he is currently traveling.
On Thursday, as Conservative delegates arrived in Quebec City for their party conference, two new polls were released showing a large lead for Poilievre’s Tories. Abacus data The Conservatives had a lead of 14 points over the Liberals, 40% to 26% Angus Reid The parties were at 39% and 27% respectively.
Both polls also showed the Conservatives leading in all regions except Quebec, where the party’s fortunes are still improving.
“What about Nanos?” came the liberal response online.
A Nanos survey In the poll released this week, the parties were statistically tied, but all other pollsters believe Poilievre has a significant lead over Trudeau. The Angus Reid poll even found that twice as many Canadians thought the Conservative leader would be a better prime minister: 32% chose Poilievre, 17% chose Trudeau, 15% chose NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and 26% said none of them were good options.
The shocking thing about all this is that the Liberals have failed to define and punish Poilievre in the last year since he was elected leader. In a current episode of the Full Commentary PodcastConservative strategist Kory Teneycke said the Liberals’ decision not to run attack ads against Poilievre after his election was a big mistake.
“They would have had that opportunity with Poilievre and they decided not to do it. I assume some of that is due to their fundraising problems,” Teneycke said, pointing out that the Liberals lag behind the Conservatives by a wide margin in fundraising.
“I think the annals of history will prove this to be a major campaign mistake.”
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The Liberals didn’t run these ads when they had the chance, and now Poilievre has had the opportunity to travel across the country several times, meeting, speaking with and introducing himself to Canadians. The Conservative Party also launched a $3 million advertising campaign that covered television, radio, print and online media with ads aimed at portraying Poilievre as a family man concerned with rehabilitating Canada and dealing with important issues Issues such as the cost of living are addressed.
If twice as many people tell Angus Reid’s pollsters that Poilievre would be a better prime minister, or if Abacus Data finds that more people have a positive impression of Poilievre than a negative one, that means change. If voters in Atlantic Canada, Trudeau’s strongest support base in eight years, start turning to the Conservatives, it will mean change.
However, it is still too early for Poilievre and his team to declare victory and begin writing Trudeau’s political obituary.
First of all, we don’t know when elections will take place. Since it is a minority parliament, it could come in a matter of weeks or, thanks to the coalition agreement Trudeau has struck with Singh, possibly as late as 2025, when the agreement expires.
Second, ignoring Justin Trudeau is just plain stupid. The man may be a bad prime minister, but he is a good campaigner, as he has proven with three election victories in a row.
“Events, my dear boy, events,” British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan is reported to have said when asked what could throw his government off course.
Both Poilievre and Trudeau have to worry that events are coming and things could change by the time voters vote. But for now, Poilievre can smile and bask in the warm embrace of a welcoming congressional crowd as Trudeau and his Liberals rage and try to find ways to attack the Conservative leader a year too late.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/poilievre-pops-trudeau-tanks-in-polls-as-cpc-convention-opens Poilievre hits sweet spot as Conservatives rally in Quebec City