Porto vs Inter Milan prediction, odds, line-ups

Marcelo Brozovic celebrates his goal during the Italian Serie A match Torino vs Internazionale on September 10, 2022 in Milano, Italy. (Photo by ImagePhoto/Imago/Icon Sportswire) **** NO AGENTS — NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY ****

• It’s Porto against Inter Milan in the Champions League round of 16 second leg on Tuesday 14 March
• Porto are on form and face a one-goal deficit after Lukaku’s goal decided the first leg in Milan
• Below is our Porto vs Inter Milan prediction where we look at the odds and offer some tips

On Tuesday 14 March, Porto face Inter Milan in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16. Kick-off at the Estádio do Dragão is at 15:00 ET. The hosts start as very marginal favorites but are they the best bet for your Porto vs Inter Milan prediction?

Inter have the slenderest lead after winning 1-0 at San Siro in the second leg but their form is patchy as the Portuguese hosts are on a good run and confidence is high.

We preview our Porto vs Inter Milan picks, look at the odds and provide some analysis, team news and predictions below.

Porto vs Inter Milan Odds

Bookmakers have listed Porto as plus-money favorites to win, but by the smallest margin possible. At +165 for the home win, the Portuguese champions have an implied 37.7% probability, while Inter are listed at +170 for winning the first leg with a 37.0% probability of winning. The tie is rated +240 at Porto v Inter Milan odds, which is an implied 29.4%.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 13th.

Porto vs Inter Milan Over/Under and Spread

With a benchmark of 2.5, bookmakers set the under at -105 and the over at -120.

Porto vs Inter Milan preview

Although it was a frustrating night in Milan for Porto, Sergio Conceicao’s men left feeling quite satisfied, knowing they would return home to Portugal, still very good at the duel.

After losing Otavio with 12 minutes to go – he was shown red for his second bookable offense – they remained determined and kept the score at 0-0 until the 86th minute when Romelu Lukaku, who came on for Inter, scored the only goal of the game scored.

Before Lukaku’s goal, Porto had more than held their own in the game and Inter were grateful to keeper Andre Onana for a couple of vital saves. But they are trailing behind so the Portuguese champions need to take the initiative in the second leg.

👀 Olhar do Dragão🐉 Ready for Inter💪#FCPFCIM #UCL pic.twitter.com/Lzu9Liv4rf

— FC Porto (@FCPorto) March 13, 2023

Good form but no Primeira Liga for Porto this season

It was a good season for the Dragoes and they qualified for the UCL knockout stages by winning their last four Group B games in a row and winning 10 straight games before the World Cup break. But they will struggle to retain their Primeira Liga title as they are eight points behind Benfica after 24 games.

Porto’s recent record at this stage of UCL is quite good – they finished in the last eight in 2019 and 2021 – but they lost to the Nerazzurri at the same stage of the competition in 2004/05.

Mixed fortunes for Inzaghi’s men

It’s been a mixed season for Simone Inzaghi’s men, who are unlikely to retain their title despite finishing second in Serie A as Napoli are currently 18 points clear. They performed well in the Champions League to reach the round of 16, beat and beat Barcelona in the group stage and finished second in a group that also included Bayern Munich.

While the first leg was a struggle and they may only have come away with that 1-0 win as Porto are down to ten men, that could prove to be a priceless lead, especially considering they have won four of their last seven away games in Europe.

All thoughts on the next ⏭️#PortoInter #UCL #ForzaInter pic.twitter.com/6BOCKlPUlQ

— Inter (@Inter_en) March 12, 2023

Omen not good for Inter

But Inter do not come into this game at their best after suffering their eighth Serie A defeat of the season at the weekend as they were beaten away by 17th-placed Spezia.

They also have a poor away record against Portuguese sides in European competition, with just one win in their last eight games. It looks set to be a tough night for the Nerazzurri.

Porto vs. Inter Milan squad line-ups and injuries

postage Planned lineup: Costa, Mario, Pepe, Cardoso, Sanusi, Grujic, Uribe, Franco, Pepe, Galen, Taremi.

Injuries & absenteeism: Otavi.

Interprojected setup: Onana, De Vrij, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Martinez, Lukaku.

Injuries & absences: skriniar.

Porto vs Inter Milan head to head stats

* Statistics from the official UEFA website.

Porto vs Inter Milan Prediction

As the bookmakers’ odds suggest, it could go either way, but Porto are in very strong form and home advantage could be crucial given Inter’s poor record in Portugal.

For me, the home win is valuable and it’s even more important to bet on Porto to go through.

Porto vs Inter Milan selection: Porto win (+165) / Porto lead 1-0 (+250)

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