Raiders Super Bowl Odds Unchanged After Jimmy Garoppolo Signing; 13-1 to win AFC West

11/21/2022; Mexico City, Mexico; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) celebrates on the field after his team’s 38-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals at the Estadio Azteca. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

• The addition of QB Jimmy Garoppolo via free agency doesn’t move the needle for the Las Vegas Raiders in terms of their Super Bowl odds
• The Raiders remain at +4000, the same chance of winning the Super Bowl before signing Garoppolo
• On Tuesday, Las Vegas All-Pro tight end Darren Waller traded to the New York Giants

Jimmy Garoppolo has already led a team to the Super Bowl. Odds makers are not very confident that he will do it again.

Garoppolo took center stage for the San Francisco 49ers as they headed to their final Super Bowl game in 2019. On Monday, the Las Vegas Raiders signed Garoppolo as a free agent. Previously, the Raiders had +4000 to win next season’s Super Bowl.

Today, with Garoppolo signed, the Raiders are still at +4000 in the 2023 Super Bowl odds.

2023 Super Bowl Odds

The Raiders are the 13th market to win the AFC Championship Game, also at +4000 in the conference odds. In terms of their odds of winning an AFC West title, the odds makers place Las Vegas as a fourth betting option at a distant +1300 in the NFL divisional odds.

It’s been a long dry spell for the Raiders in terms of NFL postseason success. They have only qualified for the playoffs since losing the 2002 Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both times it was an AFC wildcard team and each time they managed a quick exit.

Odds as of March 14th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars sportsbook promotion to bet on the NFL.

Raiders in transition

Las Vegas is coming off a 6-11 campaign. This is the Raiders’ fourth non-winning season in the last five and 17th in the last 19 years.

The Raiders opted to tie the can to QB Derek Carr and announced they would be pulling from him after nine seasons. Carr was benched for the final two games of the 2022 campaign.

shit sad fr

— Josh Jacobs (@iAM_JoshJacobs) March 14, 2023

Las Vegas made another move on Tuesday, and that too is a puzzling development. The Raiders traded all-pro tight end to the New York Giants. The latest news didn’t sit well with NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs. He took to social media and left no doubt as to what was going on with the team.

Raiders must give Garoppolo a game to manage

Garoppolo is known in football circles as the QB who is a match manager. He won’t create magic like Patrick Mahomes or detonate bombs like Josh Allen.

In this case, he needs a game to manage it. During his two best seasons in San Francisco, Garoppolo was aided by strong running play. Going to the NFC Championship Game in 2021, the 49ers ranked seventh in NFL rushing (2,166 yards). They were 12th in passing yardage (4221) and 14th in TD passes (26).

“Jimmy Garoppolo looks deeply at Davante Adams!” pic.twitter.com/LEy40jDhKC

— Anthony (@itsanthonybreh) March 13, 2023

Two years earlier, when the Niners went to the Super Bowl, Garoppolo was 13th in passing yards (3,792) and 10th in TD passes (28). But San Francisco was the NFL’s No. 2 rushing team (2,305).

That’s why it’s important for the Raiders to keep Jacobs in the herd. The man who streaked 1,653 yards on the ground for a league league could be a free agent. But it said the Raiders will put the franchise tag on Jacobs if they can’t agree on a new contract by Tuesday.

Odds makers see Raiders worse than Broncos

Was there a bigger train wreck in the NFL last season than the Denver Broncos? After QB Russell Wilson was added, faced with relatively low Super Bowl odds, the Broncos plummeted and burned, finishing 5-12.

This season, however, odds-makers are again convinced that the Broncos will improve greatly under their new coach, Super Bowl winner Sean Payton. However, the addition of Garoppolo doesn’t impress those setting the odds much.

2023 AFC West Odds

In the AFC West, the Raiders are the fourth betting option (+1300), the only team with a betting line above +1000. Denver and the LA Chargers are both at +350. The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the -130 chalk.

On paper, Garoppolo looks like a winner. After all, he’s 40-17 in the NFL. But he has also proven prone to injury and in his past he has taken the helm of good teams and been asked to do less. Here’s an amazing Garoppolo stat – he’s 11-2 in games where he doesn’t throw a TD pass.

The Raiders traditionally ask their QBs to do more. That doesn’t bode well for this marriage.

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