Despite Monday’s apparently unexpected diversion on the street, with the UK and EU seeking changes to the NI protocol, there’s still every reason to believe a deal is on the way.
There’s also every reason to believe the deal won’t pass the DUP’s seven tests, and so Sir Jeffrey Donaldson must anxiously await the day when he has to decide whether Stormont will return or if it’s over – perhaps for a decade or more.
When a deal is done, it doesn’t matter whether Sir Jeffrey backs it.
If a border in the Irish Sea is still at stake, which almost certainly will be the case, he cannot support it – at least not without giving up his own testing and thus his own political credibility.
Rather, it is important to see whether the DUP withdraws its veto against Stormont. There are different ways to do this.
The DUP could glare at the deal, take legal action against it, release their most outspoken personalities to start ranks left, right and center — while returning to government hoping the token spats will hide substantial descent .
An alternative would be for the DUP to allow Stormont to be restored but choose to go into opposition – something that would be so surprising it would at least partially distract from the about-face.
If an initial framework agreement is struck between London and Brussels, the DUP could say it will return temporarily while the details are worked out, arguing that the critical state of the public health system and the lengthy nature of the negotiations will require it to take on a new post .
Sir Jeffrey is almost certain to want to return to Stormont if he can possibly sell it, and he was evidently willing to remain in Stormont initially while the Irish Sea border was being built.
But the memory of what drove the DUP out of Stormont will worry Sir Jeffrey, especially with local elections just months away.
The DUP is well aware of the fact that the party plummeted to 13 percent in the polls as it – reluctantly in its own way and in a way that found little appreciation from sea border advocates – tried to make the protocol work bring to.
The only reason for her partial recovery, while still behind Sinn Féin, is the party’s adoption of an ultra-obstructionist stance.
It accepted the gist of Jim Allister’s and Jamie Bryson’s arguments in this area; The protocol is said to have fundamentally undermined the union and British goods going to Northern Ireland to stay in Northern Ireland must be treated in the same way as goods going from London to Edinburgh.
When Mr. Allister and Mr. Bryson lead the opposition to the DUP, their credibility has been bolstered by the DUP’s willingness to share platforms and other forums with them.
Westminster’s direct rule legislation last week to remove key Irish Sea border powers from Stormont would make it easier for any future DUP ministers to ditch their role in implementing the protocol; they could denounce London while silently rejoicing did the work for her.
But other unionists are looking at this and picking up a different message: if Stormont cannot be used to defend the integrity of the union when it has been damaged, what is the point of their representatives being there?
A protocol deal is very likely; the restoration of Stormont is far from assured.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/sam-mcbride/when-a-protocol-deal-is-done-the-key-dup-response-isnt-whether-jeffrey-donaldson-endorses-it-42291365.html Sam McBride on the NI Protocol: When a deal is closed, the most important reaction from the DUP isn’t whether Jeffrey Donaldson endorses it
