samvat 2078: Samvat 2078 leaves D-Street investors richer by Rs 11 lakh crore

Even as the headline Sensex index ended the Hindu financial year Samvat 2078 weak down 465 points, Dalal Street investors were Rs 11.3 lakh crore richer. The market capitalization of all companies listed on the BSE increased by Rs 11.3 lakh crore to Rs 274.4 lakh crore during the year.

While the Sensex in the Samvat 2078 finished 465 points lower at 59,307.15, the Nifty finished 253 points lower at 17,576.30.

Historical data shows that Samvat 2078 was the worst year for Indian markets in the last seven years. Sensex ended the last year up 38%.

However, from a global perspective, Samvat 2078 will go down in Indian equity market history as the year of India’s outperformance relative to developed markets and peers.

“The big question as we launch Samvat 2079 is whether this outperformance will continue. While India’s valuations are expensive from a short-term perspective, economic and earnings fundamentals partially justify the valuation premium. More importantly, the DII/retail support for the market is getting strong enough to dwarf FII sales. This explains the logic for FIIs to become buyers (Rs 1,864 crore yesterday) when US bond yields rise and the 10-year yield stands at 4.23 per cent,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar , Chief Investment Strategist at


Sector rotation was evident in Samvat 2078 as old economy sectors such as energy, utilities, industrials and capital goods outperformed while old favorite IT stocks ended up being the worst performers. New Age stocks have been among the biggest killers of wealth, despite being the favorites of retail investors who used the buy-the-dip strategy.

While 3 stocks from Adani Group posted multibagger returns, 7 from Tata Group’s stable have posted returns of over 50% since last Diwali.

Analysts said if you look at the data from the last Samvat to the current one, there is little difference between the performance of large, mid and small caps.

“On the contrary, small caps have done better than large caps. Therefore, going forward, Indian equity market performance would be driven more by small and mid-caps,” said Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo.

In Samvat 2079, which begins next Monday in Diwali, Nilesh Shah, veteran investor and MD of the Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, said banks, capital goods and manufacturing are likely to outperform the market. “Tech and pharma will present interesting bottom-up opportunities in the correction,” Shah said.

Samvat 2078 proved to be a challenging and memorable year for global equities amid many headwinds including rate hikes, energy crisis, Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing supply disruptions, FPI outflows, elevated inflation, etc.

“We saw increased volatility in the markets – more on the downside. However, Indian equity markets proved resilient, outperforming most developed and emerging markets. Robust retail, HNI SIPs and blanket inflows helped offset the large outflows from FPIs without too much damage to the indices,” said HDFC Securities.

Domestic brokerage firm ICICI Securities has a one year lead from Nifty at 19,425 (21x FY24 EPS) with sector bias to Banks, Capital Goods/Infrastructure, Auto. It has advised investors to avoid sectors with a global outlook such as IT, oil & gas and metals.

(Disclaimer: Experts’ recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) samvat 2078: Samvat 2078 leaves D-Street investors richer by Rs 11 lakh crore

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