Tampa Bay Derby Prediction & Odds
Trainer Todd Pletcher watches his horses practice on the track at Churchill Downs in the morning. April 27, 2021 Hd1a14261480
- Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby awards 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner
- Tapit Trice is a big favorite in his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby odds
- Is Tapit Trice one of the best three-year-olds, or will we be in for a surprise on our Tampa Bay Derby prediction in the Sunshine State?
The Tampa Bay Derby may not have the prestige or history of other Kentucky Derby prep races, but it has proven a viable route to Louisville on the first Saturday of May. Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby and wore roses two months later. Super Saver won in Kentucky after a third place finish in Tampa.
With 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points awarded to the winner, the Tampa Bay Derby is effectively a win and you are in the running. Second place earns 20 points, with 15, 10, and 5 points for the next three down the other side.
Coach Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby a record five times and has Saturday’s favorite in Tapit Trice. Pletcher also sends out second-choice Shesterkin. Should we bet on or against Pletcher? Where is the betting value in the Tampa Bay Derby odds?
2023 Tampa Bay Derby Odds
| Horse | opportunities |
|---|---|
| Tapit Trice | +160 |
| Shesterkin | +450 |
| grove country | +600 |
| Classic heritage | +600 |
| Classic car wash | +800 |
| Lord Miles | +1200 |
| road of freedom | +1500 |
| Champions dream | +2000 |
| Zydeceaux | +2000 |
| Prairie Hawk | +2000 |
| Dreams of Kona | +3000 |
| Mikey Bananas | +3000 |
As you can see in the chart above, Pletcher’s duo of Tapit Trice (+160) and Shesterkin (+450) are the favorites, including Classic Legacy (+600), Groveland (+600) and Classic Car Wash (+800). the top choice. It’s not a bad idea to start betting the Kentucky Derby odds on Tapit Trice now if you think he’s going to win. When the mile-and-a-sixteenth Tampa Bay Derby begins at 5:15 p.m. ET, the weather is forecast to be sunny and in the mid 70’s with a very low chance of rain. Fox Sports 2 and Fan Duel TV will cover the race.
Here’s a look at some of the contenders for the Tampa Bay Derby.
Turn back the clock for Todd Pletcher
Pletcher has dominated this race for the last decade. He has won four times in five years, starting with Verrazano’s result in 2013. Three of the four wins have gone to prohibitive favorites.
Tapit Trice is heavily favored last time out due to his dominating win over Shesterkin among others.
Tapit Trice is a $1.3 million son of Wood Memorial winner Tapit. He finished third in his debut and returned in New York in December to win in the mud. His debut in 2023 was the kind of race that places you firmly on the derby radar.
Shesterkin was the favorite against Tapit Trice last time out. He entered this race at Gulfstream Park with a first result. He will add blinkers on Saturday, a cue to run fast early and see if the speed holds up.
Local options for Tampa Bay Derby picks
Seven of the 12 horses in the Tampa Bay Derby ran in the Sam F Davis Stakes last month. While race winner Litigate is not running this weekend, runner-up Groveland, 3rd-place Classic Car Wash, 4th-place Classic Legacy and 5th-place Zydeceaux are in the field.
Groveland is never respected when it comes to betting but always seems to do well. He has been in the money in all five starts but has only one win.
Classic Car Wash beat pretty weak girls in December, and then Florida bred free horses in January before starting late last time.
Champions Dream is a $425,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Despite being relaxed in the Sam F Davis, his final race in 2022 was strong, winning the Grade 3 Nashua. He missed Zydeceaux by a neck at the Pasco in Tampa in January.
Zydeceaux looks more like a sprinter than a horse who wants a lot of distance but should be in the lead and that can be dangerous.
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Tampa Bay Derby Prediction
Tapit Trice is making his stakes debut, but anything close to his last try should be good enough to beat this group. Shesterkin could be underestimated. Sure he was dominated by his stablemate last time out but he has blinkers on now, his debut was impressive and remember he was the favorite last time out. One or more of Sam F Davis’ horses may prove a capable challenger, but they will need to run faster on Saturday to be legitimate competition for Tapit Trice.
Tampa Bay Derby Picks: Tapit Trice (+160)
David F
sports journalist
Dave Friedman has been involved with professional and collegiate sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks and many local networks, he has written about and broadcast events large and small across the country.
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