The Golden State Warriors’ odds don’t add up

The Golden State Warriors are third chances to win the West, despite dubious precedents. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

Chances of the Golden State Warriors reaching the finals

The Golden State Warriors are third in the odds list to win the Western Conference and, against all logic, reach the NBA Finals.

Yes, the reigning NBA champions, fifth in the west and with the opportunity to climb even higher with Kevin Durant’s insane injury and Ja Morant’s indefinite suspension, are pie in the sky.

3rd highest probability of winning the West at +600

DraftKings is one of several major sportsbooks where the Dubs have the third highest probability of winning the West at +600, behind the Phoenix Suns (+230) and Denver Nuggets (+280). While many casual bettors see this as a great value bet, there is no value in losing and that is what the Warriors are destined to become.

The dynasty is over

The Warriors dynasty began in 2015 when they broke through and won their first modern-era title by defeating LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were both injured before or during the six-game streak, but the Warriors had arrived anyway.

Golden State took home three of their next four Larry O’Brien trophies after that win, returning to the promised land in 2022 with a 4-2 win over the Boston Celtics. Stephen Curry won his first Finals MVP award as the Celtics’ youth fell victim to the Warriors’ experience and championship ability.

They’re only 7-26 from home, which translates to a 21.2% win rate.

This year, however, everything changed for the Warriors. They’re only 7-26 from home, which translates to a 21.2% win rate. For comparison, the team with the worst away record in reaching the NBA Finals in modern history, the 1981 Houston Rockets, went 15-26 away – a 36.6% win rate.

That Golden State sits in the fifth seed also means it will likely be in every playoff series it participates in during the upcoming playoffs. Having won one in five road games in the past and being asked to win four straight best-of-seven series with four games on the way would be a pretty good order.

That’s just the tip of the unfortunate iceberg. The Warriors are only 20-21 with their best player, Steph Curry, in the lineup. That means they’re 14-12 and play better without him, which is almost unfathomable given that he’s been the engine of this dynasty from the start.

Clear relapse

The case of the warriors doesn’t get any better if you analyze the numbers. They’re only 18th in defensive rating (113.6), which is nowhere near as high as in the four years they’ve been gaining chips.

They were first in 2015, second in 2017, eleventh in 2018 (but they had Durant), and first in 2022. The team with the worst defensive rating to win an NBA championshipfor comparison, is the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks, who ranked 10th in the league with a rating of 111.4.

It’s also not like the Warriors have an unstoppable offense — they’re fair 15th in offensive rating (114)which is well short of Bucks’ mark of 117.2 in the same 2020-21 season.

The Warriors are arguably more likely to miss the playoffs than win the Conference Finals

To take it a step further, the Warriors are more likely to miss the playoffs than win the Conference Finals. They are just a game and a half above the 10th seed, last to make the play-in tournament, and two games from the 11th seed, first to miss the postseason. Tankathon ranks the Warriors’ remaining game schedule as the eighth-toughest in the league, with eight of their 15 games underway.

There is also no guarantee that the Warriors will win their play-in game if they end up having to play one. In 2020-21, they lost in back-to-back games to the young Memphis Grizzlies and the veteran Los Angeles Lakers to end the postseason before the bracket even began.

The Warriors have a big name, but they’ve been small on the pitch this season. They would have to defy all modern precedent to pull off what sportsbooks suggest they have a great shot at.