Valspar championship chances to make the cut
Brian Harman watches his slap shot from the 11th tee during round three of The American Express at La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, Calif. Saturday January 21, 2023.
- The odds of making the cut and missing the cut are live for the Valspar Championship beginning Thursday, March 16, 2023
- Brian Harman has missed the cut in four of his last five appearances at the event
- Read on for the full list of Valspar championship brands and miss out on the cut odds
The PGA Tour’s Florida swing concludes with another fiendish test at Innisbrook Golf Resort’s Copperhead Course. Like most Florida stops, trouble lurks everywhere on this course. That has made the Valspar Championship one of the most volatile tournaments to bet on, with big names routinely not participating on weekends.
Word on the ground this week is that the rough is almost four inches long and that, along with an abundance of water, means there’s even more importance attached to hitting the ball. As a result, we need to target elite approaches and off-the-tee players in our make-the-cut parlay, and outperform the guys who are spraying it all over the miss-the-cut market.
The Valspar Championship Make the Cut Odds
| golfer | chances of making the cut | Chances of missing the cut |
|---|---|---|
| JustinThomas | -900 | +450 |
| Jordan Spieth | -900 | +450 |
| Sam Burns | -550 | +330 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -550 | +330 |
| Adam Hadwin | -425 | +275 |
| Wyndham Clark | -425 | +275 |
| Keegan Bradley | -400 | +260 |
| JustinRose | -400 | +260 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -380 | +250 |
| Denny McCarthy | -340 | +225 |
| Justin Suh | -340 | +225 |
| Ben Griffins | -340 | +225 |
| Brian Harman | -295 | +200 |
| Taylor Moore | -295 | +200 |
| Gary Woodland | -275 | +175 |
| Stephen Jaeger | -250 | +175 |
| Davis Riley | -250 | +175 |
| KH Lee | -240 | +165 |
| Brandon Wu | -240 | +165 |
| Nick Taylor | -240 | +150 |
Speaking of making and missing cuts, Valspar Championship favorites Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth each have the longest chances of a trunk slam this week at +450. Both have solid records at this track but one player struggling to find the weekend here is Brian Harman.
Odds as of March 14th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Harman boasts a horrific history at Copperhead
Harman has missed the Valspar weekend in four of his last five appearances. He has failed to break 70 in 12 of his last 16 rounds at Copperhead and is coming into the week in subpar form.
Brian Harman Last 5 starts in the Valspar Championship
| Year | Result | SG total |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5. | 11 |
| 2019 | MC | -1.8 |
| 2017 | MC | -4.0 |
| 2016 | MC | -0.2 |
| 2015 | MC | -1.8 |
Harman has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments, adding a 44th place finish as well. He has lost shots from his irons in seven straight events and is negative in four straight round-the-green tournaments.
Not flushing your irons in the Valspar will penalize you, and that’s compounded if you’re also having trouble crawling your way.
Tip: Brian Harman misses the cut (+200)
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Make the cut parlay
Harman is a cross-off for us this week, but there are still plenty of players hitting it well to aim in our make-the-cut parlay. Gary Woodland tops this list after delivering another impressive ball-stroke performance last week. The 2011 Valspar champion had 7.4 strokes in the Players Championship and leads the field in strokes won over the last 12 rounds.
Justin Rose is our next leg, fresh off a 6th place finish in the Players Championship. Rose won 7 ball strokes and leads the field for the last 12 rounds.
A very special win for Justin Rose pic.twitter.com/ceVc2BBtNg
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 6, 2023
Our third and fourth legs are Justin Suh and Adam Hadwin, each in the strongest form this week. Suh ranks in the top 11 in scoring, iron play, scrambling and putting over the last 12 rounds. Hadwin, meanwhile, is a past champion of this event and has finished in the top seven places in the last 12 rounds on both shots, from tee to tee Green as well as from the ball hit.
Last but not least, we’re targeting Brandon Wu as the anchor leg. Wu has back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida at Honda and Players and finished second at Pebble Beach last month. When you add it all up, we’re looking at a +286 payday if all five of our golfers survive the cutline.
Selection: Make the Cut Parlay (+286)
Chris Amberley
sports journalist
As a Swiss Army Knife resident at SBD, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather knock off small ledges in the player prop market than swing a 5-leg parlay for the fences.
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