Why Boris Johnson is not safe even if he wins his confidence vote

The call Mr Johnson feared came through in the early afternoon on Sunday.

As he prepared to attend the finale of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations, the Prime Minister was reached by phone from Sir Graham Brady.

Political Editor Ben Riley Smith has a reconstruction of what happened when Mr Johnson found out he was facing the vote.

It came after an unbearable memo spread like wildfire across Tory WhatsApp groups as the Prime Minister was in the royal box enjoying Saturday night’s party at the palace.

Camilla Tominey Details of what was included in the new dossier and revealed why rebellious backbenchers think the man once dubbed ‘Big Dog’ is now ‘unvoted’.

But Mr Johnson’s allies have put together their own document supporting him.

The beginning of the end?

Mr Johnson’s supporters have made it clear he will remain prime minister if he wins a clear majority in today’s confidence vote. A win is a win.

Aside from that, the history of Tory leadership challenges shows that victory can be far from possible.

Theresa May, Sir John Major and most notably Margaret Thatcher found to their own detriment that the support of a majority of their MPs was no guarantee of long-term support.

Gordon Rayner analyzes how a win for Mr Johnson could still be the beginning of the end.

Nigel Farage explains why this will be the last chance to remove the Prime Minister before the next election.

Who could replace him?

The contest is a simple up-and-down vote on whether Mr Johnson should remain in office.

A clear majority of one is required to oust the prime minister.

But the danger for Mr Johnson is that the vote is a blind vote, meaning ministers and others on the government payroll who have been biting their tongues so far could finally crack down on him.

Here’s a guide on how voting works and what happens next.

Should he lose, here are the runners and riders who could replace him.

Briefing in the evening: today’s most important headlines

Around the world: Mariupol ahead of “cholera outbreak”

Ukrainian authorities say the Russian occupation administration in Mariupol has closed the city for quarantine over a possible cholera outbreak. Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to Mariupol’s mayor, told Ukrainian TV today that the city is bracing for an epidemic as dead bodies and garbage pile up in the city on the Azov Sea. “The word ‘cholera’ is increasingly heard in the city among local officials and their superiors,” said Andryushchenko, who left Mariupol at the start of the war, citing his sources in the city. Our live blog has the latest.

Monday big reading

I spent the anniversary weekend with people chasing cheese down a hill Why Boris Johnson is not safe even if he wins his confidence vote

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