Why NFL teams should stop betting on the 45-year-old QB in 2023

Tom Brady’s upcoming free agency, which unofficially began after a 31-14 win over the Dallas Cowboys, will be one of the biggest stories of the NFL offseason. The most successful NFL player of all time is likely to be looking for a new home.

Teams will reportedly queue for his services, but that might not be a good idea. It’s no secret that Brady wasn’t the old Brady this year. Everything was a challenge and the team fought mightily.

One thing Brady does is win, but even that was difficult in a very weak NFC South. The team finished 8-9 (also 0-1 in the postseason) and some of those wins were last-second and very lucky.


Tom Brady had one of his worst seasons

His numbers were also declining. Although he led the NFL in pass attempts and completions, he threw nearly 700 fewer yards than the previous season.

He also threw 18 fewer touchdowns. His 3.4% touchdown percentage was a career low. He did it all with an NFL-low 2.9% sack percentage, so it’s not like he was under constant pressure.

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His average of 6.4 per attempt was the lowest since 2002. It hasn’t been a terrible year, but it looks like Brady is on the way down.

Perhaps the most telling indicator is the Pro Football Reference Absolute Value statistic. This attempts to place value on a player’s season. Brady had an AV of 10 in 2022. He has never had such a low overall score.

What’s changed from the season before when there was a dispute that he should have won MVP over Aaron Rodgers? The offense added former All-Pro Julio Jones and changed head coaches.

Where can Tom Brady go?
Where can Tom Brady go?

That probably means Brady needs an absolutely perfect situation to thrive at this stage in his career. That won’t be found with most teams looking to sign him.

The retirement made no sense last season, coming off a near-MVP campaign and showing no signs of slowing down. Well, while it’s not that likely, it’s probably his best option.

The San Francisco 49ers have discovered a true plug-and-play offense for quarterbacks, but will they transition from former first-round pick Trey Lance to aging Brady? They probably shouldn’t.

The Las Vegas Raiders have Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady’s former offensive coordinator, Davante Adams and possibly Josh Jacobs.

Is a 45-year-old Brady really that much of an upgrade over Derek Carr? Probably not.

The Miami Dolphins don’t know what to do with Tua Tagovailoa health-wise. Is the sinking Tom Brady worth trying? Probably not.

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Edited by Zachary Roberts


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